Whilst our clients prefer us to be continually busy, they also have a preference for us to make them a profit.
We simply do not trade international football. Form is irrelevant, team line-ups can be hit and miss and the home team venue can sometimes be described as ‘plain dodgy’.
While the ‘international break’ is on, there’s still plenty of second division downwards games for us to get our teeth into.
We are often asked about our AI Football Trading Algorithm and, of course, we aren’t going to give away our ‘Bentley Family Recipe’ so why not build your own?
Here’s what you need to take into account (or at least what we do), The home team we will call Team H:-
- The current league points difference between Team H and Team A
- The aggregate points achieved by Team H in their last 5 league home games (taking into account the points difference between Team H and their opposition).
- The aggregate points achieved by Team A in their last 5 league away games (taking into account the points difference between Team A and their opposition).
- Distance travelled by Team A to get to the game (we tend to concentrate on lower leagues so coach journeys on the day are inevitable).
- Team News – it’s fair to say that a starting 11 with an aggregate OPTA rating than exceeds the aggregate OPTA rating of the opposition’s starting 11 will emerge victorious.
- The odds (on the Asian Handicap)
Easy? Now apply the above to each and every one of the (up to) 500 games over any weekend.
Our algorithm applies on in game betting too.
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Why does betting on Brazilian football present good value?
We’ll be brief and do what we do best – analyse the statistics.
1. The average home field advantage in Serie A has been hovering around 1.75 points per game for the past five season, which is higher than eight other major domestic leagues. In Serie B, it climbs even higher as a distinct lack of funding means that away teams travel sometimes vast distances, by coach, on the day of the match itself.
Conclusion:- You’d have to be extremely brave to bet on the away team.
2. It is worth noting that, in Brazilian Série A, again over five seasons, some 28% of games finish in a draw, a higher percentage than three big European Leagues – La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. Serie B follows suit.
Conclusion:- Don’t bet on the away team unless the odds are huge and their form is scintillating.
Here, at Bentley Intelligence, we have a formulated algorithm that will, when processing all the stats, form and odds – throw up (maybe) two Brazilian League games where, utilising the Asian Handicap, where we can eliminate the draw, there is a more than 82% chance of correctly predicting that the home team will deliver us a profit. Okay, so the odds may not be world shattering but a win is a win.